Well, it’s beer o’clock here at Swing State Project, so it’s time to let loose on whatever downballot topic strikes your fancy.
Next week, once James and David have slept off their Netroots Nation-related hangovers, expect lots more analysis of the most recent round of fundraising numbers, and probably some serious remodeling of our Senate and House ratings.
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To start things off, the race I am most interested in this weekend is the PA-11 contest, between incumbent Paul Kanjorski and right-wing challenger Lou Barletta. Even though the 11th is a Democratic district, it’s overwhelmingly white and culturally conservative. I sincerely hope that the DCCC and others will have Kanjorski’s back during this hotly contested race.
The Dark Knight is out in theatres. Go see it. I know I will be tonight!
Scott Kleeb had a impressive quarter and has hired our very own kid oakland. I really think this is a race that we can win and a race where we can send one of us to Washington.
Filing closes for this cycle on Friday, July 25 (noon EDT) in Delaware. With only four seats left nationally, the two in Hawaii are spoken for by both parties. We have filed in both Vermont and Delaware. Curiously, the Republicans have filed in neither. The Burlington Free press reports in its VT Buzz column that Republicans are likely to leave Peter Welch unopposed for this cycle. The really fascinating story is Delaware where I suspect a game of political musical chairs may have been going on.
Joe Biden certainly has been angling for the VP nod. Well, nobody has been named so a week ahead of the deadline, Joe filed for re-election to the Senate. The odd thing is, although Republicans have a nominee she has yet to file. My guess is that if Biden said sayonara, Castle would file for the Senate and Christine O’Donnell would file for the House. Well, it didn’t happen and any late finagling will happen in the next week, if at all.
And then there is New York City. The last I checked the state was not reporting on two single county districts in Long Island and all of the NY City districts. The City only listed those with a September primary (multiple candidates). I still have five Democratic districts unaccounted for for the Democrats (one of the LI districts had a post deadline newspaper story) and nine NY City districts and one LI blank for the Republicans. The state senate districts ar3e pretty well covered on Albany Project and other blogs but not the US House.
Btw, NY-21 looks like a real doozy of a primary. Everybody has their connections and endorsements and all four have a lot of enthusiasm. Let me be “sexist” here. Everything being equal, I want to see a woman elected. That’s Tracey Brooks in this race. Sorry Darius. Sorry Phil Steck. As for Tonko, that weird poll he released and his claim to be endorsed by the Albany County Dems who endorsed Steck leaves me a bit on the negative side.
Mississippi Senate! Mississippi Senate! Mississippi Senate!
Need I say more?
Does anyone else find the movie (at least through the trailers) Swing Vote at little annoying? I understand that Hollywood takes a little liberty when making films, but I can’t wrap my head around this one.
From the trailers, it looks like the entire presidential election ended in a tie, rather than one state. Even if this happened, it doesn’t matter because we currently elect our presidents through the electoral college not through the popular vote. Even if the electoral college came out at tie of 135 for each candidate, the election would then go to the House of Representatives who would decide the election.
Once again, this based the preview trailers I’ve seen of the movie.
Moving on, wonder when the mainstream media will, if ever, report on the rumors about anti-gay Republican Alabama Attorney General Troy King getting caught by his wife in bed with a male aide. According the rumors, the aide was a graduate of TROY University and a former homecoming KING there.
http://www.avn.com/law/article…
http://www.pamshouseblend.com/…
http://www.leftinalabama.com/s…
TX-Sen
I’ve been watching alot of them lately. Back in 2006, I was doing nothing but looking at races in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, which are still ripe for the picking but the South has been very intriguing since LA-6. It’s like I was looking across the country for the revolution and gunshots go off in my backyard. I think we’ve found the perfect formula of the right candidate in the right district plus the expectations of heavy African-American turnout. Those that caught my eye:
AL-2: Every political website has it as Leans Republican or Republican Favored but with the long nasty Republican primary and a fantastic candidate in Bobby Bright, I almost have to say Tossup.
LA-4
LA-6
LA-7: I’m not looking for a win, which I think is possible with Cravins, but I just want the nutcase Boustany to shit his pants.
MS-SEN: Of course. My pick for the hottest senate election of ’08 like Virginia in ’06.
NC-SEN
NC-8
TX-SEN: It’s been a slow build, but it’s coming along. But can Noriega start polling within 3 points? If he does by October, watch out. Where are the 527’s here doing the dirty work? Noriega is spending too much time knocking Cornyn and not getting his own story out. Everyone here in Texas knows Cornyn ain’t worth a damn but they don’t know who the hell is running against him.
TX-10: Another one I would move up the rating ladders a little to Leans Republican.
TX-22
There are a few more out there that are either a little out of our reach but we can still draw blood (MS-3, NC-10, SC-1, TX-7, TX-32) or we don’t really have to worry about much (AL-5, MS-1) but that could change.
MN-03: I really like Ashwin Madia as a candidate. He’s a young guy who’ll have a great political career and he’d be a great asset in the House.
WA-08: I hope Netroots hero Darcy Burner pulls off a victory after losing by a hair in 2006.
CA-48: It’s R+8 in Orange County, but this race will be my sleeper pick for this year.
NJ-07: I live by the district and it’s always baffled me how they keep electing Republican representatives. 2006 was a super close race and I’m hoping Linda Stender can pull it off this time around.
MN-SEN: I really despise Norm Coleman. More importantly, I want to see more hilarious ads come from his campaign.
AK-SEN: I want to see gazillion-year incumbent Ted Tubes Stevens get knocked off. If Begich wins the seat, he’ll hold it for as long as he wants.
I’ve met with or talked with many of these candidates personally. Have to say that with so many really good people running and/or serving, it makes me wonder why it’s so hard to get anything done!
Senate:
Rice, OK. Terrific candidate, terrible opponent (Inhofe), inexpensive race. Big bang for the buck.
Allen, ME. Another terrific candidate, hope this one continues to tighten up.
House: Really, too many to list, but at the top for me are…
Trauner, WY-AL. Great guy, surprisingly competitive race. Wouldn’t it be amazing to win this seat? He lost by only 1,000 votes last time in a race that was under the national radar.
Madia, MN-03. Young, impressive, Iraq vet in a swing district.
Powers, NY-26. Another impressive Iraq vet in a swing district. Needs to get by a self-funded primary opponent in September.
Shulman, NJ-05. Blind psychologist-turned-Rabbi; an inspirational person who could take down Scott Garrett. What might have seemed improbable months ago is now on the DCCC’s “Emerging Races” list.
Kirkpatrick, AZ-01. Smart state senator, and a strong advocate of public campaign financing (which AZ has for state races).
Heinrich, NM-01. Another proponent of public campaign financing, which they have for his home city of Albuquerque.
Zeitz, NJ-04. This one isn’t quite on the radar screen yet, but I hope he gets some traction. He spent the better part of an hour with me on the phone as we discussed theories of governance–and I hadn’t even made any financial commitment! Incumbent Chris Smith could be vulnerable in a big Democratic year where his district has moderated.
And a bunch of others I could name: Shea-Porter (NH-01), Patrick Murphy (PA-08), Chris Murphy (Ct-05), Barnes (MO-06), Kilroy (OH-15), Maffei (NY-25), Massa (NY-29), Minnick (ID-01), Stender (NJ-07). Back on the Senate side, there are really only 11 or 12 potentially competitive races to keep track of, so I’ll be watching all of them!